Climate scenarios and their inclusion in strategic, operational and financial planning (TCFD Strategy)
Swissgrid takes into account the identified impacts, risks and opportunities of climate change in its strategic, financial and operational planning from a short, medium and long-term perspective (see tables showing the overview of physical climate risks, transition risks and opportunities). The costs of climate-related mitigation and adaptation measures are submitted to the Executive Board and the Board of Directors as part of the regular budget process and grid planning. Swissgrid has also carried out a qualitative climate scenario analysis for the period up to 2040 to strategically classify and align its adaptation measures.
Scenario 1: net-zero target pathway (1.5°C – 2°C pathway)
Scenario assumption: the energy transition is implemented in line with the net-zero target pathway and the Federal Government’s Energy Strategy 2050. According to the «ZERO Basis» scenario of Energy Perspectives 2050+, the proportion of electricity generation from new renewable energy sources will increase to 36% by 2040, while the proportion of nuclear power plants will fall to zero from 2034. Global GHG emissions are therefore reduced in line with the net-zero target pathway in this scenario.
Inclusion of the scenario in strategic and operational planning: grid-related support of the Federal Government’s Energy Strategy 2050 and the efficient management of the effects of the energy transition on grid stability are core elements of Swissgrid’s Strategy 2027. The company is meeting the challenges of the increasing volatility of electricity being fed in to the grid from renewable energies and unplanned electricity flows by making long-term investments in improved system controllability and resilience. In particular, these include investments in the digitalisation of system operation, as well as in the development and integration of new platforms for the use of decentralised flexibility. Additional information can be found in the «Energy transition» section. Swissgrid’s long-term grid development plan, the «Strategic Grid 2040», represents another core strategic element in support of the energy transition in Switzerland. The «Strategic Grid 2040» identifies and plans the optimisation and enhancement requirements of the Swiss transmission grid for the target year 2040. Swissgrid completed the planning of the Strategic Grid in the summer of 2024 and submitted the final report, including the planned grid construction projects, to ElCom for a review of its relevance and appropriateness.
Inclusion of the scenario in variable remuneration: achieving the climate targets in line with the net-zero target pathway is one of the strategic priorities of Swissgrid’s CSER commitment. The importance of climate issues is also reflected in the variable remuneration of the Executive Board and Swissgrid’s specialist and management staff. As part of its corporate objectives for 2024, Swissgrid defined climate-related milestones with a direct impact on the amount of the variable salary component – which apply regardless of the climate scenario. They include key performance indicators on the reduction of GHG emissions, the application of criteria for the sustainable procurement of products, and the development of sourcing strategies such as the reduction of GHG emissions and the approval of the climate strategy for Scope 1 and Scope 2 GHG emissions as part of Swissgrid’s CSER concept. In total, these three key performance indicators account for 10% of the variable remuneration of the Executive Board and management staff that is linked to the corporate objectives. The Board of Directors’ fees are fixed, irrespective of corporate targets.
Scenario 2: Moderate decarbonisation and greater need for adaptation (2°C – 3°C pathway)
Scenario assumption: the transition to renewable energies and the reduction of global GHG emissions is progressing more slowly in this scenario than in the net-zero target pathway (scenario 1). In the medium term (from 2030), this will lead to an increasing need for adaptation to ensure the resilience of the grid infrastructure due to an increase in climate-related natural hazards (see climate risk overview tables).
Inclusion of the scenario in asset management and monitoring: Swissgrid already plans, builds and operates its grid infrastructure on the basis of risk-based asset performance data. The risk factors taken into account include weather and climate-related natural hazards. In particular, potential natural hazards are considered during planning and operation on the basis of the Swiss hazard maps and the risk assessment of installations. Based on the results, real-time monitoring instruments are used and/or adaptation measures (e.g. protective structures) are introduced. In addition to geological measurement data, another example of an innovative real-time monitoring tool is «Pylonian», which uses Internet of Things (IoT) sensors on electricity pylons to constantly measure changes in potentially dangerous environmental influences over the entire life cycle of the electricity pylon. Additional information can be found on the Swissgrid website under Pylonian: monitoring electricity pylons using IoT sensors. As shown in the «Overview of physical climate risks» table, the increase in climate-related natural hazards in this scenario leads to additional costs due to repairs, enhancements, relocations and/or maintenance work to ensure the resilience of the grid infrastructure.
Scenario 3: High emissions and exponential need for adaptation (> 3°C pathway)
Scenario assumption: the global concentration of greenhouse gases continues to rise in this scenario, leading to global warming well above 2°C (corresponds to IPCCC scenarios RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5). As a result, there is a significant increase in extreme weather events.
Inclusion of the scenario in the risk assessment: Swissgrid considers scenario 3 as part of the risk scenario assessment in its materiality analysis. According to the analysis, the risk of recurring potential impacts on grid-related security of supply is rising due to the increase in extreme weather events. More investment would then be needed in adaptation measures in the planning and operation of the grid infrastructure in order to ensure the long-term resilience of the transmission grid. Swissgrid plans to enhance the climate scenario analysis, including a change in accordance with IPCCC scenarios RCP 6.0 and 8.5, over the next two to three years.